What the Massive Emmys Ballot Tells Us About This Year’s Race

 

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Spread out across 35 PDFs and hundreds of pages, the nominating ballots for the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards constitute a formidable document. This is where Emmy voters assess every eligible candidate across 118 categories; they have until Monday, June 23, to make their selections, which go public on nomination morning, Tuesday, July 15. There’s plenty of insight to be gleaned from these volumes: Which actors were (and weren’t) submitted — and why does that have such an impact on the number of nominees? Which episodes do the creators and execs consider the strongest? And which performers will be competing against themselves? After spending the better part of a day waist-deep in lists of performers and programs, I emerged with the narratives to keep an eye on between now and nominations morning.

The Lead Acting Races Just Got a Lot More Cutthroat

The ballot is slimmer than in years past. While the total number of submitted series and performances didn’t drop as drastically as it did last year (from 309 in 2023 to 229 in 2024, and now just one less at 228 in 2025), the industry continues to contract in the wake of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. This is most drastic in the Limited Series category, which dropped from 49 shows last year to 33 and thus will only have five nominees. The Outstanding Drama and Comedy Series categories will continue to feature eight nominees apiece.

The fluctuating submission numbers make the most difference in the acting categories. None of the six Lead Actor or Actress categories (in Drama, Comedy, or Limited Series/TV Movie) cleared the Emmy’s 80-submission threshold, which would guarantee six nominees per category. Now, all six categories will feature just five nominees apiece, and this will have a significant impact on the tight Lead Actor in a Drama race. Noah Wyle (The Pitt), Adam Scott (Severance), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), and Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) all feel like shoo-ins for nominations. That leaves Diego Luna (Andor) scrapping with the likes of Sterling K. Brown (Paradise), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal), and Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors) for that one last slot.

Similarly, if we assume that Actress in a Drama nods are locked for Kathy Bates (Matlock) and Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us), that leaves three slots up for grabs among a band of previous nominees — Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Keri Russell (The Diplomat), and Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — and category newcomers Britt Lower (Severance) and Keira Knightley (Black Doves).

The supporting-category submissions actually went up in a few cases compared to last year’s numbers, so the Drama and Comedy supporting categories will feature seven nominees apiece. Meanwhile, Supporting Actor and Actress in a Limited Series/Movie will feature six nominees apiece, which if nothing else breathes new life into the long-shot chances for my beloved Presumed Innocent standouts Peter Sarsgaard, Ruth Negga, and O-T Fagbenle.

The White Lotus Makes Some Puzzling Performer Omissions

So many of this year’s top-contending shows feature wide-ranging ensembles, and while not every cast member stands an equal chance at a nomination, everybody is free to either be submitted or submit themselves for the nomination ballot. And yet, we still end up with omissions. While The White Lotus submitted 19 cast members in the Supporting Actor or Actress categories, plus one Guest (Scott Glenn, as ill-fated Jim Hollinger), neither Arnas Fedaravicius (Valentin) nor Dom Hetrakul (Pornchai) are anywhere to be found. Pornchai screwed over yet again!

As Does The Pitt

Things get even more vexing when it comes to Guest Actor/Actress on The Pitt. Now, I’m not going to pretend it’s an easy task parsing which of the many patients and patients’ relatives ought to be submitted for consideration — and then there’s the fact that guest performers can self-submit if they choose. These are the The Pitt guest stars voters will ultimately pick from:

• Shawn Hatosy as Dr. Jack Abbot
• Mackenzie Astin and Rebecca Tilney as a pair of siblings who have to make the hard decision to stop life-sustaining procedures for their father
• Brandon Keener as the father of a college student who has overdosed on fentanyl
• Drew Powell as the agitated guy in the waiting room who ends up punching Nurse Dana
• Arun Storrs as the Nepalese hate-crime victim with the degloved foot
• Stacie Greenwell as the sweetly attentive mother of a teen with a twisted testicle

A few strong contenders here, particularly Shawn Hatosy, who ends up with significant screen time during the PittFest arc. But there are some real puzzling omissions, including Samantha Sloyan as the mother of the fentanyl kid, Joanna Going as the mother of the incel teen who becomes the suspect of the PittFest shooting, and Abby Ryder Fortson as a young girl looking to terminate a pregnancy. How did they forget Enuka Okuma giving birth? And pardon my vehemence, but why isn’t Krystel V. McNeil as Kiara the social worker anywhere on the ballot??? The Pitt likely has bigger fish to fry when it comes to getting any of its cast members past the bottleneck in the Supporting races, but I can be vexed about multiple things at once!

Winning Is Contagious

When it comes to the awards game, when you’re hot, you’re hot. That’s why you’ll often see Oscar winners pick up more nominations within the next few years, even when the performance/film doesn’t demand it. (Charlize Theron’s post-Monster nomination for North Country, for example.) This is good news for Zoe Saldaña, recent Oscar winner, who is submitted in the Lead Actress in a Drama category for Lioness. Her fellow Oscar winner Kieran Culkin is submitted for Voice-Over Character Performance in #1 Happy Family USA. Recent Tony winner Joaquina Kalukango is on the ballot in Lead Actress in a Limited Series/Movie for Robin Roberts Presents I Will Survive: The Gloria Gaynor Story.

And then there’s last year’s Emmy winner for Lead Actress in a Drama, Shōgun’s Anna Sawai, who is submitted in the Supporting Actress in a Drama category for her role as Naomi in Pachinko. Reminding Emmy voters how much they loved Sawai in Shōgun last year might be a good tactic for getting folks to both watch and then vote for Pachinko, one of the most acclaimed shows on TV.

Getting Nominated Is Also Contagious

It’s not exactly rare for actors to wind up nominated in multiple categories at the same Emmys. Just last year Jonathan Pryce pulled this off with Supporting Actor in a Drama (The Crown) and Guest Actor in a Drama (Slow Horses). Those hoping to do the same this year include:

• Cristin Milioti: Lead Actress in a Limited Series/Movie for The Penguin and Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/Movie for Black Mirror
• Kathryn Hahn: Lead Actress in a Comedy for Agatha All Along and Supporting Actress in a Comedy for The Studio
• Natasha Rothwell: Lead Actress in a Comedy for How to Die Alone and Supporting Actress in a Drama for The White Lotus
• Steve Carell: Lead Actor in a Comedy for The Four Seasons and Lead Actor in a Limited Series/Movie for Mountainhead
• Catherine O’Hara: Supporting Actress in a Comedy for The Studio and Guest Actress in a Drama for The Last of Us
• Julianne Nicholson: Supporting Actress in a Drama for Paradise and Guest Actress in a Comedy for Hacks

My favorite of these might be Patrick Schwarzenegger, who is of course in the mix for Supporting Actor in a Drama for his turn as big bro Saxon Ratliff in The White Lotus. He is also up for Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/Movie for American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez, where he plays former NFL quarterback/sports-talk lightning rod Tim Tebow.

It’s less fun when your double dip falls within the same category, of course, where you just end up competing against yourself. Such is the case for Squid Game’s Lee Jung-jae, who is looking to repeat his 2022 Outstanding Actor in a Drama Series win for the Netflix hit. One of the actors he’ll need to elbow past is himself, since Disney+ has also submitted him in the same category for his role in The Acolyte. The latter isn’t much of a contender, especially since the streamer pulled the plug on hopes for a second season, but support for that show and Lee’s performance could still siphon off enough votes to hurt his Squid Game chances.

Nathan Lane and Kaitlin Olson are both in contention for the ultra-rare triple nomination. He submitted for Lead Actor in a Comedy for Mid-Century Modern, Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/Movie for Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, and Guest Actor in a Drama for Elsbeth. Kaitlin Olson is on the ballot for Lead Actress in a Drama for High Potential and Guest Actress in a Comedy for both Hacks (in the role she won for last year) and Abbott Elementary (where she played her It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia character in a crossover).

Congratulations, You Played Yourself

This is where we have been heading as a culture. In the age of front-facing videos and TikTok stars landing major film and TV roles, a whopping 28 actors and actresses are submitted for Emmy consideration for playing themselves. This includes everyone from Nathan Fielder (The Rehearsal) to Steph Curry (Mr. Throwback) to Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones (Landman). Will Ferrell is up for singing a Lee Greenwood knockoff on Last Week Tonight. Drag superstar Peppermint is on the ballot for playing a fictionalized version of herself on Survival of the Thickest. In Guest Actress in a Comedy, Julia Fox (Adults) and Charli XCX (Overcompensating) are both up for their roles in the Gen-Z queer comedies du jour.

But by far, the majority of performers playing themselves this season come from two shows: Only Murders in the Building and The Studio. The Hollywood-set season of Only Murders included Zach Galifianakis, Eugene Levy, and Eva Longoria playing themselves as the cast of the Only Murders movie adaptation. All three are up for Supporting Actor/Actress in a Comedy. Meanwhile, Ron Howard has been submitted for Guest Actor in a Comedy twice for playing himself, on both Only Murders and The Studio. The latter show, inevitably, is overflowing with contenders in the Guest Actor and Guest Actress categories: Martin Scorsese, Zac Efron, Dave Franco, Zoë Kravitz, Sarah Polley, Greta Lee, Olivia Wilde, Ramy Youssef, Anthony Mackie, and Nicholas Stoller. Stoller getting submitted but not Smile 2 director Parker Finn getting increasingly perturbed by Ike Barinholtz’s Sal Saperstein jerking him around is some bullshit, by the way. Also notable: Puck’s Matt Belloni was submitted for his self-cameo, but Netflix’s Ted Sarandos was not. Be consistent with your industry ass-kissing, The Studio!

Anyway, if I’m making predictions, I’d say those best suited to score nominations are Kravitz, Franco, Polley, Efron, and possibly The Studio version of Ron Howard, where he’s more animated.

Black Mirror Plays Favorites

Over the years, the Netflix anthology series has picked up 15 Emmy nominations and 6 wins. But with upwards of six episodes per season, each with their own distinct casts, the strategy has been to put up only a handful of performers for awards consideration, seemingly in the hopes that that might help corral the votes in their favor. This worked for nominees Jesse Plemons and Letitia Wright in 2018 and Andrew Scott in 2020. (It didn’t work out last season, despite strong performances from the likes of Annie Murphy, Josh Hartnett, and Aaron Paul.)

This year, the submitted Black Mirror performers are Paul Giamatti (from “Eulogy”), Rashida Jones, Chris O’Dowd, and Tracee Ellis Ross (“Common People”); Issa Rae and Emma Corrin (“Hotel Reverie”), and Cristin Milioti and Jimmi Simpson (“USS Calister: Infinity”). “Infinity,” of course, is the follow-up to the 2017 episode “USS Calister” that won four Emmys including Outstanding Television Movie.

Anyway, too bad, I guess, for Peter Capaldi, Awkwafina, Billy Magnussen, and the other Black Mirror cast members who didn’t get submitted for consideration.

When It Comes to Writing, Less Is More

The rules for submitting in the writing and directing categories allow one submission per individual (or teams of individuals) per show they’ve worked on. So if a writer wrote every episode of their season (I’d say “ahem, Mike White,” but he’s in Fiji filming Survivor right now and can’t hear me), they can only submit one.

This rule can be advantageous, actually; some networks and streaming platforms submit fewer episodes of the same show to prevent voters from splitting their support for a given program. In the Writing for a Comedy Series category, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, The Studio, and What We Do in the Shadows each submitted only one episode, while The Bear and Nobody Wants This capped their submissions at two.

It’s interesting to see which episodes these shows (or their networks/platforms) view as their strongest contenders. The Bear submitted “Ice Chips” (the one where Natalie has the baby) and “Napkins” (the Tina-centric flashback episode), perhaps a tacit admission that Carmy’s story line didn’t really go anywhere last season and Sydney’s didn’t go much farther. Hacks went with season four’s penultimate episode, a high mark for the Deborah/Ava relationship. Both What We Do in the Shadows and Somebody Somewhere submitted their series finales, a tactic that has worked recently for shows like Ted Lasso and Barry, both nominees in 2023. Curiously going the other way is Peacock’s Poker Face, which submitted five episodes, perhaps owing to the fact that of the six episodes that aired during this year’s eligibility window (which ended May 31), five were written by different writers or teams of writers.

Among the Writing for a Drama submissions, both The Pitt and The Handmaid’s Tale submitted three episodes apiece. Handmaid’s series finale will probably be that show’s best shot at a nomination here. The Pitt went for its series premiere; another early-season episode that involved, among other things, Dr. Robby (Noah Wyle) comforting a pair of siblings about their dying father; and the rather devastating episode involving a 6-year-old drowning victim and a brain-dead college student.

Among the shows that submitted only one episode, Andor went with Mon Mothma’s climactic speech to the Imperial Senate; The White Lotus chose the sexy incest boat party; The Last of Us went with the episode where The Thing Happens; Severance picked the season finale that featured, among other things, the Innie Mark vs. Outie Mark argument; and The Diplomat went with the one where Allison Janney’s Veep tells Keri Russell’s would-be Veep what it’s all about in the North Atlantic.

When It Comes to Directing, More Is More

Considering how many shows employ more directors than they do credited writers, it makes sense that fewer utilize the single-episode-submission tactic for Directing. Among the major comedies, only Hacks (Lucia Aniello for “A Slippery Slope”), The Studio (Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg for “The Oner”), What We Do in the Shadows (“The Finale”), and The Rehearsal (“Pilot’s Code”) opted for a sole submission.

Unlike the Writing ballot, the Directing ballot includes the directors’ names, which might be a boost for episodes directed by the show’s creators — The Bear’s “Tomorrow,” the controversial, ambitious, and some might say indulgent season premiere, was directed by Christopher Storer; Rian Johnson directed Poker Face’s season premiere “The Game Is a Foot”; Bill Lawrence directed the Shrinking season-finale episode “The Last Thanksgiving”; and, of course, Nathan Fielder’s best shot at a nomination for The Rehearsal probably comes here, for directing “Pilot’s Code.” This might also be a boon for actors who took a turn at directing, like The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri (“Napkins”), The Four Seasons’s Colman Domingo (“Ultimate Frisbee”), and Poker Face’s Natasha Lyonne (“Last Looks”).

The Dramas tend to submit their biggest, loudest, most challenging episodes for Directing. Andor selected “Who Are You?” featuring the Ghorman massacre; The Pitt went with the first two episodes of its PittFest arc; Severance submitted the Gemma flashback episode; The Last of Us went with the episode with the zombie attack on Jackson, as well as The Thing That Happened; and The White Lotus submitted the season finale with all the guns and shooting.

Again, name recognition could help some of these directors get extra votes. Good news for Elisabeth Moss for The Handmaid’s Tale (“Execution”), Ben Stiller for Severance (“Cold Harbor”), and Mike White for The White Lotus.

Grey’s Anatomy Is Your Profile in Perseverance

Twenty years since the show received its first Emmy nominations, Grey’s Anatomy is still dutifully and diligently putting itself out there for Emmy consideration. (Per a rep from ABC, individuals submit for themselves rather than the network/studio submitting on their behalf.) Grey’s hasn’t been nominated since 2012, when Loretta Devine was a nominee in Guest Actress in a Drama. There’s something proud and dutiful, then, to see James Pickens Jr., who has never been nominated despite playing chief of surgery Richard Webber since the beginning, put himself up for consideration once more. He joins co-stars Kim Raver (who also submitted for Directing for a Drama Series) and Midori Francis on the performers’ ballot.

Las Competituras

Las Culturistas hosts Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers are both vying for a slot in Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy: Yang for his fourth nomination in five years for Saturday Night Live (if he can hold off castmate Marcello Hernandez, who has been coming on strong on the campaign trail), and Rogers for his supporting turn on Netflix’s No Good Deed. Will these besties be able to remain cordial during what can often be a vicious campaign season? Their Culture Awards film on July 17, a mere two days after Emmy nominations are announced. Stay tuned!

Linda Lavin Is Immortal

Tony-winning icon of stage and screen Linda Lavin died this past December while filming the first season of the Hulu gays-of-a-certain-age comedy Mid-Century Modern. The show wrote her character a lovely send-off episode, and now Lavin is in contention for a posthumous Emmy nomination for Supporting Actress in a Comedy. The last posthumous acting nominee was just two years ago, when Ray Liotta was nominated for his performance in the Apple TV+ drama Black Bird.

Did you know Lavin only ever got one Emmy nomination, for her iconic lead performance as a diner waitress on Alice?? This might be a case where justice needs to be served, however belated.

 We scoured all 35 PDFs to find the Best Actor in a Drama drama, difficult decisions for The Pitt, and a potential acting nod for Charli XCX. 

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