After a long and arduous campaign, Emmys weekend is finally upon us! And before you rush to make sure you didn’t sleep through a full week in a haze of post–Labor Day exhaustion, I am of course referring to the Creative Arts Emmys, the weekend-before celebration of all the nuts, bolts, crafts, and voice-over performers who go into making the TV shows that will be celebrated on next week’s Primetime Emmys telecast. It’s like if the Oscars sequestered into a separate ceremony all the categories ABC wishes they’d get rid of because that’s when most viewers take their bathroom breaks.

But the Creative Arts Emmys deserve our respect and attention, and not just because this is the ceremony where Martin Scorsese might win an Emmy for acting. There are over 90 categories that will bestow awards this weekend, spread out over ceremonies on Saturday and Sunday. That is obviously a lot to keep track of, but that’s what happens when you have eleven different sound categories and nine different editing categories, split up between every imaginable format of TV show. Did you know there are separate honors for Outstanding Picture Editing for Variety Programming and Outstanding Picture Editing for Variety Programming (Segment)?

But sifting through this behemoth of a Creative Arts ballot, a handful of especially compelling narratives emerge. These involve stand-up comedians, pugnacious composers, and whether or not Paula Pell will get her moment in the spotlight. Think of it as a guided tour through the Creative Arts Emmys’ most tourist-friendly destinations.

The Studio needs big numbers.

Can The Studio tie (or break) The Bear’s record of 11 wins for a comedy series in a single year? Conceivably, The Studio could pull off 11 wins at the Creative Arts ceremony alone, though it would need to practically sweep to do so. A few of these categories feel particularly conducive to The Studio’s strengths: Guest Actor is Scorsese’s to lose, and the show is in the driver’s seat for Casting for a Comedy Series (all those cameos!), Cinematography for a Half-Hour Series (the episode with the single-shot take is hard to deny), and Picture Editing for a Single-Camera Comedy Series (ditto).

That’s already four! And with the fairly safe assumption that The Studio will win three or four major awards on Primetime Emmys night (I’d say Comedy Series, Lead Actor for Seth Rogen, and Directing are solid gets; Ike Barinholtz in Supporting Actor is within grasp), that means only three to four wins among the following categories would put The Studio on record watch:
• Guest Actress — Comedy
• Production Design for a Narrative Program
• Contemporary Costumes for a Series
• Contemporary Hairstyling
• Music Composition for a Series (Original Dramatic Score)
• Music Supervision
• Sound Editing for a Comedy or Drama Series (Half-Hour)
• Sound Mixing for a Comedy or Drama Series (Half-Hour) or Animation

The TV Movie winner might actually be a good film.

Outstanding Television Movie
Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (Peacock)
The Gorge (Apple TV+)
Mountainhead (HBO)
Nonnas (Netflix)
Rebel Ridge (Netflix)

It’s been tough sledding for the Outstanding TV Movie category over the last several years. Mileage may vary on the particular artistic merits of 2024 winner Quiz Lady, 2023 winner Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, 2022 winner Chip ’N Dale: Rescue Rangers, and 2021 winner Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square, but we are a far cry from the days when the TV Movie category was a prominent holding in the Emmys’ portfolio, when winners like the landmark AIDS history And the Band Played On and Julianne Moore’s uncanny Sarah Palin in Game Change. There’s a reason this award has, since 2020, been presented at the Creative Arts ceremony — no one knows what qualifies as a “TV Movie” these days. This could be a bright year for the category, though, if Netflix’s Rebel Ridge winds up taking the award, as it’s expected to. Jeremy Saulnier’s film about an ex-Marine who has to battle his way through the small-town cops trying to shake him down was one of the best-reviewed TV movies in a long time.

It’s not a done deal of course. HBO still holds a lot of sway with the Academy, and Mountainhead is a movie with current-events relevance (a bunch of tech oligarchs plot a very casual and market-friendly global takeover from their mountain hideaway) and director Jesse Armstrong, who created Succession, has enjoyed a ton of Emmy success in the past.

Emmy host Nate Bargatze may go home with a statue of his own.

Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Adam Sandler: Love You (Netflix)
Ali Wong: Single Lady (Netflix)
Bill Burr: Drop Dead Years (Hulu)
Conan O’Brien: The Kennedy Center Mark Twain Prize for American Humor (Netflix)
Sarah Silverman: PostMortem (Netflix)
Your Friend, Nate Bargatze (Netflix)

The term “Variety Special” actually encompasses quite a few different types of TV shows. This year’s ballot alone featured televised award galas like TNT’s The AFI Life Achievement Award: A Tribute to Nicole Kidman, Broadway theater like PBS’s Great Performances presentation of Yellowface, and concert specials like Disney’s The Lion King at the Hollywood Bowl. But over the last several years, the Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) category has belonged increasingly to stand-up comedy specials. This year, the comedy revolution was complete, with five nominations going to stand-up specials and the sixth going to Conan O’Brien’s Mark Twain Prize ceremony. This kind of stand-up dominance is a relatively new phenomenon at the Emmys (last year’s winner was Dick Van Dyke 98 Years of Magic), so it’s hard to unpack voter tendencies here. But generally speaking, the more broadly popular performers tend to do well. This would seem to give someone like Adam Sandler the advantage, what with his decades in the industry and general likeability.

If Academy members base their votes on which comedian feels most zeitgeisty at the moment, they might consider voice of the people Bill Burr, whose comedy tends to cut through liberal squeamishness while still punching in the right direction. Then there’s Nate Bargatze, whose mainstream appreciation after several blockbuster SNL hosting stints can be best epitomized by the fact that he’s hosting the Emmys telecast next weekend. Now, if award shows were that prone to awarding their own hosts, that would be news to the likes of Oscar-less Billy Crystal and Emmy-less Conan O’Brien. But the Emmys’ tastes tend to run normie, and your normie friend’s favorite comedian is probably Nate Bargatze.

I’m manifesting a “Martin Scorsese and Robby Hoffman holding their Emmy statues together” photo op.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Jon Bernthal as Michael Berzatto in The Bear, “Napkins” (FX)
Bryan Cranston as Griffin Mill in The Studio, “CinemaCon” (Apple TV+)
Dave Franco as himself in The Studio, “CinemaCon” (Apple TV+)
Ron Howard as himself in The Studio, “The Note” (Apple TV+)
Anthony Mackie as himself in The Studio, “The Note” (Apple TV+)
Martin Scorsese as himself in The Studio, “The Promotion” (Apple TV+)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Olivia Colman as Chef Andrea Terry in The Bear, “Forever” (FX)
Jamie Lee Curtis as Donna Berzatto in The Bear, “Ice Chips” (FX)
Cynthia Erivo as the Kazinsky sisters in Poker Face, “The Game Is a Foot” (Peacock)
Robby Hoffman as Randi in Hacks, “Cover Girls” (HBO Max)
Zoë Kravitz as herself in The Studio, “The Presentation” (Apple TV+)
Julianne Nicholson as Mary-Alice in Hacks, “A Slippery Slope” (HBO Max)

There is one story dominating the discussion around the Guest Actor and Guest Actress in a Comedy categories, and that’s been the glut of celebrities playing themselves on The Studio. This phenomenon has played out in the guest categories for years; in the last decade alone, Guest Actor in a Comedy has seen nominations for Matthew Broderick (Only Murders in the Building), Morgan Freeman (The Kominsky Method), Lin-Manuel Miranda and Michael J. Fox (Curb Your Enthusiasm), and Mel Brooks (The Comedians). None of those performers won, though, perhaps because none of them had the narrative momentum that Scorsese has. Born out of an impetus that feels 60 percent respect and 40 percent trolling, folks in the media — social and otherwise — feel invested in the idea of Martin Scorsese getting an Emmy for cursing out Ike Barinholtz.

Meanwhile, Guest Actress in a Comedy is a wide-open affair that includes two holdover nominees from last year (The Bear’s Olivia Colman and last year’s winner, Jamie Lee Curtis), another self-performance from The Studio (Zoë Kravitz), and an actress who may well be smack in the middle of two consecutive Oscar nominations (Cynthia Erivo, nominated for playing five different characters in Poker Face’s season-two premiere). And yet my rooting interests are almost entirely based on who I’d most like to see standing next to Scorsese in the paired photo op. There’s an appeal to a Scorsese/Erivo photo, Marty grasping Cynthia’s finger as they hold space together, and Hacks’s Julianne Nicholson deserves to win for her increasingly debaucherous turn as Dance Mom. But there is a big part of me that just needs a photo of Martin Scorsese and alt-comic Robby Hoffman clinking their Emmy statues together.

The Last of Us could go two-for-two in dominating the Drama Guest categories.

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Giancarlo Esposito — The Boys: “Beware the Jabberwock, My Son” as Stan Edgar (Prime Video)
Scott Glenn — The White Lotus: “Killer Instincts” as Jim Hollinger (HBO)
Shawn Hatosy — The Pitt: “9:00 PM” as Dr. Jack Abbot (HBO)
Joe Pantoliano — The Last of Us: “The Price” as Eugene (HBO)
Forest Whitaker — Andor: “I Have Friends Everywhere” as Saw Gerrera (Disney+)
Jeffrey Wright — The Last of Us: “Day One” as Isaac (HBO)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Jane Alexander — Severance: “Sweet Vitriol” as Sissy Cobel (Apple TV+)
Gwendoline Christie — Severance: “Cold Harbor” as Lorne (Apple TV+)
Kaitlyn Dever — The Last of Us: “Through the Valley” as Abby (HBO)
Cherry Jones — The Handmaid’s Tale: “Exile” as Holly (Hulu)
Catherine O’Hara — The Last of Us: “Future Days” as Gail (HBO)
Merritt Wever — Severance: “Who Is Alive?” as Gretchen George (Apple TV+)

Two years ago, The Last of Us swept the guest-acting categories for drama, with Nick Offerman and Storm Reid winning for two of the show’s more romantic storylines. With two nominations in each category this year, the post-apocalyptic HBO series could easily triumph again. Jeffrey Wright and Kaitlyn Dever both made brief but impactful appearances this season, teasing out more significant presences in the upcoming third season. Meanwhile, Catherine O’Hara and Joe Pantoliano’s doomed couple better fits the vibe of last year’s winners — maybe Emmy voters just like a tragic love story amid a bunch of fungus zombies.

One interesting spoiler: Cherry Jones, the three-time Emmy winner who is the only performer representing the final season of The Handmaid’s Tale. That distinction alone is probably a reason to pick against her — if the Emmys still gave a damn about The Handmaid’s Tale, they’d have at least nominated Elisabeth Moss — but the Emmy voters clearly like her work. Her previous wins were for 24, Succession, and, oh that’s right, The Handmaid’s Tale.

This might be the year a Taylor Sheridan show wins an Emmy.

Famously, Taylor Sheridan’s vast television universe has never been Emmy voters’ cup of tea, even when Yellowstone was riding high as one of TV’s most-watched shows. That trend continued this year, with zero nominations for Sheridan’s shows in the major Emmy categories and a complete shutout for buzzy new series Landman. But hope lurks in the creative-arts categories! 1923 is nominated in both Outstanding Production Design for a Narrative Period or Fantasy Program (One Hour or More) and Outstanding Period Costumes. In the former category, it faces stiff competition from the likes of Andor and Dune: Prophecy; in the latter it’s up against the extravagant costumes of Bridgerton and the period-accurate early ’90s tackiness of Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story.

Sheridan’s Lioness pulled in one single nomination, for Outstanding Stunt Coordination for Drama Programming, where it’s up against 2023 champion The Boys and this year’s likely winner (based purely on how much overall love there was for the show) The Penguin. Tulsa King, meanwhile, has its single nomination in Outstanding Stunt Coordination for Comedy Programming, where it’s up against five-time nominee Cobra Kai and three-time nominee The Righteous Gemstones. Honestly, Sheridan’s shows will probably go zero for four, but if I had to bet on one, it would be Tulsa King, based purely on the competition being somewhat weaker.

But will the White Lotus composer thank Mike White?

Three-time Emmy winning composer Cristobal Tapia de Veer is the man behind The White Lotus’s club-banger theme songs, and he’s up for another pair of awards this year: Outstanding Music Composition for a Series (Original Dramatic Score) and Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music. Of course things are a lot more awkward now that de Veer and Mike White publicly feuded over de Veer’s perception that White didn’t respect him, with White calling de Veer’s comments to the New York Times a “bitch move.” With both sides of the feud seemingly more than willing to throw shade upon the other, one imagines a Cristobal Tapia de Veer acceptance speech could include a few choice comments.

A writing win for SNL 50 would be a win for 30 comedy legends.

The Emmy producers moved the Outstanding Variety Special (Live) category to the main Emmys telecast, seemingly so it could find a way to honor the Saturday Night Live 50th-anniversary special in front of the live-TV audience. But seeing Lorne Michaels get up and deliver his thank-yous wouldn’t even make for the best SNL-related Emmys moment. That could come at the Creative Arts ceremony, where a win for SNL 50 in Writing for a Variety Special would be a win for the following writers [deep breath]: James Anderson, Dan Bulla, Megan Callahan-Shah, Michael Che, Mikey Day, Mike DiCenzo, James Downey, Tina Fey, Jimmy Fowlie, Alison Gates, Sudi Green, Jack Handey, Steve Higgins, Colin Jost, Erik Kenward, Dennis McNicholas, Seth Meyers, Lorne Michaels, John Mulaney, Jake Nordwind, Ceara O’Sullivan, Josh Patten, Paula Pell, Simon Rich, Pete Schultz, Streeter Seidell, Emily Spivey, Kent Sublette, Bryan Tucker, and Auguste White.

Obviously, they won’t all be there for the less-prestigious ceremony. The reunion of all these folks is what the SNL 50 event was for. Still, though, even if just a few of them showed up, think of how fun the speeches might be. I’m basically fantasy-casting which handful of nominees would make for the best acceptance: John Mulaney and Paula Pell. Jim Downey, Emily Spivey, and Simon Rich. Tina Fey and Seth Meyers, the Weekend Update pair that never was. Personally, I’m rooting for Jack Handey and Jimmy Fowlie.

 This weekend will tell us a whole lot about next weekend.